Quantum Threat Intelligence: What Senior Defence Leadership Needs to Know About CRQC Timelines and Classified System Risk
Nation-state quantum programmes are advancing on a timeline that defence establishments are assessing differently from one another. The gap between the most optimistic and most pessimistic credible estimates for a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer has narrowed. The implications for classified communications infrastructure, for the window available for PQC migration, and for allied coordination are significant. This briefing is for senior defence leaders who need an honest read on the threat picture, not a curated one.
Event Details
- Who else is in the room
- Senior level executive peers, industry leaders, experts in risk, technology and business. Specifically: senior military officers, Chiefs of Staff, and equivalent civilian defence leaders with cryptographic security and classified communications in their mandate.
- Access
- Members only. Bundled with Expert Membership. Included with Expert Member tier
- Sponsor
- Organised by QSECDEF
- Facilitator
-
Anna Beata Kalisz Hedegaard Quantum Security Defence - Rules of engagement
- Chatham House Rule Chatham House Rule. Discussion is on the record; attribution is not. Participants may share what was said but not who said it.
- Format
- Structured Q&A Flexible between roundtable, structured Q&A or in-person hosted dinner
- Who Should Join
- This briefing is for senior defence leaders (Chiefs of Staff, senior military officers, and equivalent civilian officials) with strategic responsibility for cryptographic security and classified communications. It is relevant to senior officials at defence ministries and allied commands. It is not for junior programme managers or technical staff without strategic decision authority. Participants are expected to hold appropriate clearance levels for a frank discussion of classified system risk posture.
About This Conversation
Why this matters now
The academic literature on quantum hardware has moved faster than most government threat assessments expected. Gidney's 2025 resource estimates for breaking RSA-2048 use approximately 897,864 physical qubits and a 4.96-day runtime, representing a significant reduction from earlier estimates. Defence cryptographic systems assessed as safe under 2020-era CRQC timelines need re-evaluation. CNSA 2.0, published by NSA in September 2022 and updated to version 2.1 in December 2024, mandated migration timelines for National Security Systems: new acquisitions compliant by January 2027; legacy network equipment phased out by December 2030; near-full transition by December 2031; final niche systems by December 2033. For the highest-classification systems, that timeline may be shorter than current planning assumes. The harvest-now-decrypt-later window is already open for intelligence collected today.
Outcomes
What you will leave with
- An honest read on where the consensus sits among defence peers on CRQC timelines: where the estimates are converging and where significant uncertainty remains
- A frank exchange on where classified communications infrastructure is most exposed, based on current algorithm use and the CRQC resource estimates now in the public literature
- Peer experience from allied defence organisations on the CNSA 2.0 migration: where migration is on schedule, where it is behind, and what the blockers are
- Clarity on the allied coordination dimension: where interoperability commitments require synchronised migration timelines, and where those timelines are currently misaligned
- A shared assessment of the harvest-now-decrypt-later exposure window for intelligence collected today under current cryptographic protection
Your Facilitator
Anna Beata Kalisz Hedegaard
Founder, QSECDEF
Anna Beata Kalisz Hedegaard has over 15 years of international experience in deep-tech, telecommunications, and defence communications networks. Her expertise spans intellectual property, advanced communications systems, and quantum secure communications. She has lived and worked across Poland, Denmark, the United States, Malaysia, the Netherlands, and Germany. Anna holds dual Master of Science degrees in Theoretical Cosmology from the University of Southern Denmark and Electrical Engineering from Wright State University, USA. She is the founder and board member of Quantum Security Defence.
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