Defence organisations need intelligence-grade assessment of the quantum threat, not vendor marketing. This briefing provides a structured threat intelligence analysis covering which nation-state actors are investing in quantum computing and why, evidence of active HNDL collection campaigns, realistic CRQC timeline projections from peer-reviewed sources, and the strategic implications for defence cryptographic infrastructure over the next 5-15 years.
The quantum threat to defence cryptography operates on two timescales. The immediate threat is HNDL: adversaries collecting encrypted data today for future decryption. The UK NCSC, US NSA, and French ANSSI have all publicly acknowledged this risk and issued migration guidance. The longer-term threat is the arrival of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) capable of running Shor's algorithm against RSA and ECC. Timeline estimates vary from optimistic (2030-2035) to conservative (2045+), with most credible projections centring on the mid-2030s.
This briefing synthesises publicly available intelligence on national quantum computing programmes (China, US, EU, UK, Russia, others), maps published hardware milestones against CRQC requirements, and assesses the strategic posture of key actors. Participants receive a framework for ongoing quantum threat monitoring calibrated to defence intelligence reporting standards, enabling continuous assessment updates rather than point-in-time snapshots.
Deep Dive Session structure with scheduled breaks. Content is configurable to your organisation's technical level and operational environment.
| # | Session | Topics |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quantum Threat Intelligence Overview Structured assessment of the quantum risk to defence |
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| 2 | National Quantum Programme Assessment Who is building what, and when might they succeed |
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| Break, after 60 min | ||
| 3 | HNDL Threat Analysis Active collection and its implications for defence |
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| 4 | Discussion and Threat Monitoring Framework Ongoing quantum intelligence assessment |
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Workshops are designed and delivered by QSECDEF in collaboration with sector specialists. All facilitators have direct experience in both quantum technologies and defence systems.
Workshop design and delivery
QSECDEF brings world-leading expertise in post-quantum cryptography, quantum computing strategy, and defence-grade security assessment. Our advisory membership spans 600+ organisations and 1,200+ professionals working at the intersection of quantum technologies and critical infrastructure security.
Domain expertise and operational validation
Defence workshops are co-delivered with sector specialists who bring direct operational experience in defence organisations. This ensures workshop content is grounded in regulatory, operational, and technical realities specific to the sector.
Sessions are configured around your organisation's technical level, operational environment, and regulatory jurisdiction. Get in touch to discuss requirements and schedule a date.
Contact UsQuantum technologies are evolving quickly and new developments emerge regularly. This page was last updated on 15/03/2026. For the most current information about course content and suitability for your organisation, we recommend contacting us directly.
